Grand Junction, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

571
FXUS65 KGJT 150559
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1159 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat of dry thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds
  continues this evening.

- Wetting rains become more likely Friday, with gusty outflow
  winds and lightning producing threats for wildfire
  operations.

- Cooler temperatures and higher relative humidities will taper
  off by Sunday, with hot and dry conditions returning next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The threat of lightning across the region has significantly
diminished this evening. A few isolated storms may still be
capable of producing a few lightning strikes over the next couple
hours, but these pose little threat of new fire starts, and thus
the need for the Red Flag Warning appears minimal at this time.
Therefore, the Red Flag Warning has been canceled as of 8 PM MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Successive soundings here at Grand Junction paint a clear picture of
the shifting regime here on the West Slope. A surge of mid level
monsoon moisture brought PWAT`s up appreciably this morning. Area
radar and satellite imagery is showing the results: numerous showers
and thunderstorms sprouting on area terrain features. A lack of
wetting rains and numerous lightning strikes reinforce our Red Flag
Warning for dry thunderstorms through this evening. A few showers
are expected to linger into the overnight hours, potentially sending
some erratic outflow winds across area valleys as these showers
decay tonight. This will also leave some cloud cover Friday morning
to contend with before convective initiation. The Fire Weather Watch
for Friday was cancelled due to a lack of confidence in dry
thunderstorm coverage and surface moisture increase. There remains a
non zero chance for some dry thunderstorms across our northern
counties where QPF values thin out tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms
will be widespread again Friday afternoon with gusty outflow winds a
concern for fire crews and wildfire behavior. Wetting rain chances
increase Friday as we see another uptick in moisture. Generous cloud
cover and shower activity will keep temperatures tamped down Friday
with low elevation valleys struggling to reach the ninety mark.
Overnight lows on Saturday morning will land around the normal mark
with drainage winds lending a hand near rain cooled terrain. A few
showers are expected to linger into Saturday morning again on the
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

On Saturday, not much changes in the pattern so expect another
afternoon with showers and storms. Although we will be on the
backside of the shortwave trough that passes by tomorrow. Subsidence
in the midlevels could cause some drying and perhaps not as steep
lapse rates. Ultimately, this will limit the instability and
coverage of convection, especially compared to Friday. If any storms
can develop dry thunderstorms will be the biggest concern as
measurable rainfall looks less probable. The higher terrain will be
favored for showers, with gusty outflows favoring the lower
elevations. On Sunday, the pattern remains in place other then some
drier midlevel air, and it appears that the lapse rates do not
change much either. Therefore the chances for convection continue to
decrease. The central mountains along the Divide and the San Juans
seem to be the best places for isolated showers in the afternoon.
There might not even be enough instability for lightning. Dry air
continues to filter in on Monday, especially across the north, so
temps go up by a few degrees. Any moisture will be confined to the
southern third of the area, so once again showers are possible in
the San Juans. The one certainty next week is that the high pressure
now over the Plains will come back west. Luckily the winds stay
relatively light with the lack of any pressure gradient, which is
somewhat good for the wildfires. As the high settles overhead
temperatures go back up above normal. Models are showing that
moisture may wrap clockwise around the high and filter into the area
late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Westerly to southwesterly winds this evening will becoming
light and terrain driven overnight, before once again turning
gusty and southwesterly to southerly Friday afternoon.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday
afternoon as well, with a decreasing threat of gusty winds and
increasing concerns for heavy rain. Wildfire smoke also remains
a concern. VFR conditions will prevail, but reductions to MVFR
due to wildfire smoke or heavy rainfall will be possible through
the forecast period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT